Quarterly Equities and Multi Asset Outlook – Q2 2024

20 min read 11 Apr 24

Bulls, bears and ballot boxes

  • In 2024, more voters than ever in history are expected to head to the polls. While the media and industry pundits have much discussed the ensuing “heightened” geopolitical risk, we don’t believe this is the case everywhere, and certainly not uniformly.
  • To affect financial markets, geopolitical events have to have a meaningful implication on the economy or economies that drive those markets. Otherwise, any resulting volatility becomes an opportunity for active investors to buy at a better price.
  • Meaningful policy changes following elections may have a much longer-lasting impact, although the market performance may not be as straightforward and depend on more circumstances than just domestic policy. In India, the S&P BSE Sensex has performed strongly in the ten years since Modi’s government, but not as well as in the prior ten years when India’s policies were less market friendly.
  • As always, the devil is in the detail: some of the elections could impact specific areas of the market and be less meaningful for others. In the US, the most exciting opportunities to emerge are likely to be in areas that neither presidential candidate seems to be talking about.

The information provided should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. The views expressed in this document should not be taken as a recommendation, advice or forecast. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount you invested.

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By M&G Equities & Multi Asset Team

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