Weekly market commentary

Market review

Global equity markets saw good performance over the week with Asia leading the way. Performance was helped by renewed optimism that the war between the US and Iran could be coming to an end along with ongoing enthusiasm around artificial intelligence (AI). The week also saw the latest US ISM Services PMI reading and UK voters head to the ballet in local elections.

The major news surrounding the US-Iran conflict came earlier in the week when reports noted that President Trump would pause the US-led “Project Freedom” effort to help ships exit the Strait of Hormuz which he announced the weekend before. Sentiment was helped further by reports that the US and Iran were close to agreeing a one-page memo that would end the war with Trump noting the war had a very good chance of ending by next week. This helped equity markets rally, while the Brent crude oil price briefly fell below $97 a barrel, having reached as high as $120 last week. However, tensions rose later in the week after the US struck targets in Iran following attacks on three US warships, although markets held most of their gains as Trump said the “ceasefire is going. It’s in effect”.

Semiconductor chip stocks led the way once again. AMD reported strong earnings results after noting surging demand for its AI agents with accelerating demand for AI infrastructure. Asia stocks have continued to benefit from the buildout of AI with the likes of Samsung reaching a $1 trillion market cap as demand for its memory chips continues to be strong.

The US April ISM Services PMI came in at 53.6 – a reading of above 50 indicates expansion - which is firmly above averages from last year. Business activity and output continued to expand highlighting the current resilience of the US economy despite the war in Iran. Meanwhile, US job openings fell 56,000 to 6.87 million in March 2026 but was above forecasts of 6.84 million.

The latest UK local elections are taking place and initial results suggest Nigel Farage’s UK Reform party has racked up large gains in the first counts with British voters turning away from Keir Starmer. From a market perspective, any challenge to Starmer’s leadership within the Labour Party could lead to an easing of the UK’s fiscal rules which could put upwards pressure on UK Gilts yields moving forward.

Outlook

Markets are currently beholden to news flow on the war in the Middle East, with rapidly changing rhetoric stoking volatility. Investors are weighing the implications of the conflict and its duration on macroeconomic factors and assessing what the policy responses may be from governments and central banks in tackling inflationary pressures from energy shortages and fears of slowing growth. Fiscal dynamics, liquidity conditions and shifting policy expectations are likely to reinforce cross asset and regional dispersion in the months ahead. Earnings remain solid and despite overall volatility, regional equity markets remain resilient with limited signs of recession presented in data.

Movers table