Weekly market commentary

Market review

Markets have been volatile this week, with resilient economic data increasingly overshadowed by policy uncertainty and sector-specific risks. The S&P 500 saw its longest slide in a month as investors continued to interpret strong data such as the Q2 GDP revision to 3.8% (the fastest growth rate in nearly two years) and below consensus jobless claims as a headwind for further Fed easing, reinforcing the “good news is bad news” narrative.

President Trump signed a proclamation requiring a $100,000 supplemental fee for new H-1B visa petitions filed from 21 September. The H-1B visa allows US companies to temporarily hire foreign workers in specialised roles requiring technical expertise. While current visa holders are unaffected, the move—aimed at prioritising domestic hiring—has raised concerns in sectors that rely heavily on international talent.

Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan held rates steady as expected, though two dissenting votes signalled internal debate over the timing of future hikes. Governor Ueda also hinted at a potential shift in asset purchase strategy, including a reduction in ETF and REIT holdings, which could influence Japanese equity flows.

Gold continued its ascent, surpassing $3,750/oz, as investors hedge against uncertainty. Meanwhile, Bitcoin slumped ahead of a $22bn options expiry. Oil prices rose earlier in the week, hitting seven-week highs on supply concerns linked to Russian export restrictions and Ukrainian drone strikes.

On the regulatory front, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) released new guidance for fund managers and issuers on sustainability-related claims to avoid greenwashing risks in investor communications. The note reflects a broader push to strengthen the EU’s sustainable finance framework and ensure that ESG claims are credible, consistent, and not misleading.

Despite the volatility, underlying economic strength, policy clarity, and regulatory progress offer a constructive backdrop for long-term investors.

Outlook

Markets remain reactive to a mix of economic and geopolitical signals, with recent moves reflecting uncertainty around inflation, growth, and policy direction. While corporate earnings have held up in many regions, investor sentiment has become more cautious. As inflation trends diverge and labour markets evolve, central banks may take increasingly different paths - raising the potential for greater dispersion across asset classes and regions in the period ahead. 

Movers table