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Market Outlook

Weekly market commentary

Last Updated: 10 Apr 26 5 min read

By M&G Treasury and Investment Office (T&IO)

Contents

  1. Market review

  2. Outlook

  3. Movers table

 

Market review

This week, markets remain heavily shaped by ongoing war-related news and continued negotiations between the US and Iran. These themes have remained front and centre for investors.

Early in the week, market sentiment was cautious. Rising energy prices began to show up in business surveys and inflation expectations. In the UK and Europe, March economic data pointed to slowing momentum, particularly in the services sector. UK services firms reported the biggest monthly rise in costs since 2021, while overall activity fell to its lowest level in almost a year. Many businesses specifically reported feeling the impact of the war, alongside higher energy and transport costs. In contrast, the US economy appeared more resilient, with stronger‑than‑expected orders for long‑lasting goods suggesting spending remains reasonably firm.

Midweek brought a sharp change in mood. News of a two‑week ceasefire helped ease concerns around energy supply, triggering a broad rally across global markets. Shares rose strongly, market volatility fell, and government bond yields declined as fears about near-term inflation increases eased. Emerging markets benefited most, while oil prices fell sharply, highlighting just how sensitive markets have been to energy‑related developments.

US economic data later in the week reinforced a mixed picture. Inflation remains elevated, while signs of slowing growth continue to emerge. This helps explain why the US Federal Reserve is taking a cautious “wait and see” approach. Alongside geopolitics, company‑specific news offered contrast. Samsung reported strong profits driven by AI demand, though gains eased on sustainability concerns. Overall, the past week highlighted how quickly markets can shift when inflation and energy concerns either intensify or ease.

Outlook

Markets remain sensitive to fast‑moving developments in the Middle East, which continue to add short-term volatility. Despite this, company earnings remain supportive and economic data shows limited signs of recession, helping equity markets remain relatively resilient.

Movers table

Equities

1 Week

YTD

1 Year

S&P 500

3.69%

0.03%

31.16%

FTSE 100

1.95%

8.14%

38.79%

Euro Stoxx 50

3.94%

2.52%

25.65%

MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan

6.31%

9.00%

49.10%

MSCI China

2.64%

-5.38%

20.16%

Source: Bloomberg as at 8:54am on 10.04.26

This content has been prepared by M&G Treasury and Investment Office (T&IO) for information purposes only and does not contain or constitute investment advice. Information provided herein has been obtained from sources that T&IO believes to be reliable and accurate at the time of issue but no representation or warranty is made as to its fairness, accuracy, or completeness. The views expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Neither T&IO, nor any of its associates, nor any director, or employee accepts any liability for any loss arising directly or indirectly from any use of this document. The value of investments and any income from them may go down as well as up and are not guaranteed. Investors may get back less than the original amount invested and past performance information is not a guide to future performance.

‘M&G Treasury & Investment Office (T&IO)’ includes the team formerly known as Prudential Portfolio Management Group (PPMG), Prudential Portfolio Management Group Limited, is registered in England and Wales, registered number 2448335.

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