Weekly market commentary

Market review

Global equity markets climbed to a new record following the latest Federal Reserve interest rate cut. During the week, investors also focused on Oracle’s earnings, UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for October, and China’s November trade balance update.

The Federal Reserve held its last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the year and delivered a 0.25% cut to US interest rates - the third in a row - leaving the US interest rate range at 3.5-3.75%. The decision was expected by market participants but it wasn’t unanimous among the 12 FOMC voters, with 9 members voting for the 0.25% cut, 2 members voting to keep rates unchanged and 1 member voting for a 0.5% cut. This was the first time that three officials voted against the policy decision since 2019. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted that risks to US employment are rising and an interest rate cut would allow the labour market to stabilise while inflation continues to move down. The rate cut gave a boost to global equity markets over the week.

Focus then turned to Oracle, which published its latest results – the company is seen as a bellwether for the AI investment boom. The stock price fell -10.52% overnight as revenue fell short of expectations. The fall in share price dragged other AI-related names down as investors questioned how quickly technology companies could see a return on their investments.

The British economy unexpectedly contracted -0.1% month-on-month in October 2025, following a similar decline in September and falling short of an expected 0.1% expansion. This marks the fourth consecutive month of no growth. A key detractor was the services sector which declined -0.3% in October after a 0.2% rise in September, with the largest negative contributions coming from wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (-4.3%).

China posted its latest balance of trade for November where its surplus topped a record $1 trillion in the first 11 months of the year despite a large slump in shipments to the US. In November alone, the surplus reached $112 billion, the third-largest on record and well above expectations as exports rose more than imports. The data shows that despite the ongoing trade war between China and the US, China has still been able to sell goods around the world at a large scale.

Outlook

Markets remain sensitive to shifting economic data and geopolitical risks, with volatility clustering around key announcements. Diverging inflation paths and uneven growth are driving increasingly asymmetric central bank policies, while fiscal dynamics and liquidity conditions add complexity. This backdrop sets the stage for greater dispersion across assets and regions in the months ahead.

Movers table