Weekly market commentary

Market review

Global stocks and bonds rose over the week. Bond yields fell after signals that OPEC+ would increase oil production at its next meeting, causing oil prices and inflation expectations to fall. The week also saw some amendments to Trump’s tariffs, new deals in the artificial intelligence space and the latest US government shutdown.

The US saw the first government shutdown in almost seven years and the third one during a President Trump administration. The shutdown has occurred because the Republicans and Democrats could not agree a bill to fund government services into October and beyond. The US system requires different branches of government to reach an agreement on spending before they become law. Interestingly, during the last 6 US government shutdowns, the S&P 500 has risen over each period.

Due to the US government shutdown, weekly initial jobless claims were not released, and the September nonfarm payroll report is not expected to be published on Friday. Therefore, investors have had to pay closer attention to the US ADP employment change which showed private businesses in the US cut 32,000 jobs in September. The contraction in private payrolls caused bond yields to fall as investors expect more interest rates cuts are on the horizon to support the labour market.

In Asia, markets have been supported by a rise in technology stocks and falling global bond yields. In particular, SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics were strong performers after both companies signed a letter of intent to supply semiconductor chips for OpenAI’s Stargate data centre project. OpenAI recently conducted an employee share sale which valued the company at $500 billion.

President Trump paused plans to enact a 100% tariff on brand-name or patented pharmaceuticals unless the drugmaker is building a manufacturing plant in the US. The reversal in decision caused a rally in drugmaker share prices. Trump did however confirm 10% tariffs on lumber, as well as 25% levies on kitchen cabinets, vanities and upholstered furniture. 

Outlook

Markets remain reactive to a mix of economic and geopolitical signals, with recent moves reflecting uncertainty around inflation, growth, and policy direction. While corporate earnings have held up in many regions, investor sentiment has become more cautious. As inflation trends diverge and labour markets evolve, central banks may take increasingly different paths - raising the potential for greater dispersion across asset classes and regions in the period ahead. 

Movers table