Weekly market commentary

Market review

This week, markets were heavily influenced by a sudden rise in tensions in the Middle East. Over the weekend, the United States and Israel carried out coordinated strikes on Iran, sharply increasing concerns about stability in the region. Iran responded, and the situation escalated further. One immediate effect was a near-standstill in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global trade route through which a large share of the world’s oil passes. As a result, the cost of moving goods by sea on the Middle East–China route rose to record levels.

When markets opened on Monday, oil prices jumped. Brent Crude, a key global benchmark for oil prices, rose by 7% in a single day to 82 US dollars per barrel, and continued climbing to almost 85 US dollars. Investors were reacting to the possibility that a longer conflict could disrupt oil supplies. Qatar Energy, the world’s largest producer of liquified natural gas (LNG), stopped all operations after drones damaged a major facility. Saudi Arabia also reported damage at one of its oil refineries, adding to concerns about global energy supplies.

Global stock markets fell as risks increased. South Korea’s main stock index, the KOSPI, dropped more than 11% during the week, while major Asian and European markets fell between 4% and 8%. Rising energy prices also pushed government bond yields higher, as investors reassessed the outlook for inflation.

In Europe, unemployment and early inflation data were slightly better than expected, while in the United States, new private‑sector hiring figures pointed to ongoing resilience in the job market.

Outlook

Markets are closely watching new economic data, with price swings driven by major announcements and rising global political tensions. Inflation and growth are moving at different speeds across regions, leading central banks to follow increasingly different interest‑rate paths. At the same time, higher government spending and shifts in financial conditions add further challenges, meaning asset performance may vary more widely in the months ahead – something that’s normal during periods of change. 

Movers table